23rd Aug. German Bundesliga---St. Pauli VS Borussia Dortmund Prediction
German Bundesliga - St. Pauli VS Borussia Dortmund
Match Time:24-08-2025 00:30 Sunday (GMT+8)
Football Livescore | Match Prediction & Tips
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FC St. Pauli
St. Pauli, coached by Alexander Blessin, finished 14th in 2024/25 with a 6-3-15 record, narrowly avoiding relegation. Their recent form includes a goalless DFB-Pokal draw against Eintracht Norderstedt on August 17, 2025, winning 5-4 on penalties, and a 2-0 league loss at Mainz on May 10, 2025. They’ve averaged 1.0 goal scored and 1.4 conceded in five competitive matches. Key players include Morgan Guilavogui (5 goals in 2024/25), Eric Smith, and Jackson Irvine, with a probable 3-4-3 lineup: Vasilj; Wahl, Nemeth, Van der Heyden; Sands, Irvine, Smith, Ritzka; Guilavogui, Eggestein, Sinani. Strengths include their home support and defensive organization (2 clean sheets in 5), but a weak attack (28 goals last season, league-low) and injuries to Simon Zoller and Karol Mets (doubtful) are concerns. They aim to upset Dortmund, leveraging their home atmosphere and a rare 2-1 DFB-Pokal win over BVB in 2022.
Borussia Dortmund
Dortmund, led by Niko Kovač, finished 4th in 2024/25, securing Champions League football with an 18-5-11 record. They started 2025/26 with a 1-0 DFB-Pokal win at RW Essen on August 17, 2025, with Serhou Guirassy scoring. Their recent form shows three wins, one draw, and one loss in five matches, averaging 2.2 goals scored and 1.0 conceded, as shown in the sports card above (e.g., 2-0 win at St. Pauli on March 1, 2025). Key players include Guirassy (13 goals in 2024/25), Karim Adeyemi, and Jobe Bellingham, with a probable 4-2-3-1 lineup: Kobel; Ryerson, Anton, Schlotterbeck, Bensebaini; Sabitzer, Groß; Adeyemi, Brandt, Bellingham; Guirassy. Strengths include their attacking firepower (70 goals last season) and unbeaten run against St. Pauli (11-1-0 in last 12 Bundesliga games), but injuries to Niklas Süle, Emre Can, and Julien Duranville are issues. They aim to start with a win, capitalizing on their historical dominance.
Head-to-Head
As detailed in the sports card above, St. Pauli and Dortmund have met 18 times in the Bundesliga since 1977, with Dortmund winning 11, St. Pauli 2, and 5 draws. Recent results include a 2-0 Dortmund win on March 1, 2025 (Guirassy 49’, Adeyemi 57’) and a 2-1 Dortmund win on October 18, 2024 (Bensebaini 43’, Guirassy 83’; Smith 78’ for St. Pauli). At Millerntor-Stadion, Dortmund lead 4-1-3, with St. Pauli’s last home win a 1-0 result in 1988. Matches average 2.5 goals, with 44% both teams scoring (BTTS) and 50% over 2.5 goals, though recent games have been tighter.
Predicted Score: FC St. Pauli 0-2 Borussia Dortmund
St. Pauli’s Guilavogui and Irvine face Dortmund’s Guirassy and Adeyemi, with St. Pauli’s home resilience tested by Dortmund’s attacking quality and H2H dominance. Dortmund are favorites (1.52 odds, 65% win probability) over St. Pauli (5.75), with a draw at 4.33. Trends (St. Pauli: 40% under 2.5 goals; Dortmund: 60% over 2.5 goals) and H2H suggest a competitive game, with betting tips favoring Dortmund to win (1.52) and under 2.5 goals (2.00). Cards are likely in the 19°C evening, with St. Pauli’s 11 fouls and Dortmund’s 10 per game suggesting 3-4 cards under Jöllenbeck’s whistle. St. Pauli aim for an upset, but Dortmund’s form should prevail. Dortmund may score through Guirassy and Adeyemi, with St. Pauli struggling to convert. Dortmund’s historical edge and attacking form should secure a clean-sheet win, aligning with their recent dominance and St. Pauli’s low-scoring trend at home.
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