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July 13th UEFA European Women's Championship - Netherland (W) VS France (W) Prediction

July 13th UEFA European Women's Championship - Netherland (W) VS France (W) Prediction
UEFA European Women's Championship  -  Netherland (W) VS France (W)
Match Time:14-07-2025 03:00 Monday (GMT+8)
Football Livescore | Match Prediction & Tips

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The UEFA Women's EURO 2025 Group D Matchday 3 clash between Netherlands Women and France Women is scheduled for July 13, 2025, at 20:00 CET (14:00 UTC) at St. Jakob-Park, Basel, Switzerland. This critical group stage finale determines the quarter-finalists from a highly competitive Group D, with both teams vying for a top-two spot alongside England and Wales.

Netherlands Women Review
The Netherlands, coached by Andries Jonker, started their campaign with a 3-0 win over Wales on July 5, 2025, with Vivianne Miedema scoring her 100th international goal. However, a 4-0 loss to England on July 9, 2025, at Stadion Letzigrund exposed defensive frailties, conceding a tournament-record four goals. Their 4-3-3 formation relies on Miedema (1 goal), Lineth Beerensteyn, and Daniëlle van de Donk (2 assists vs Wales). The Dutch average 2.2 goals per game in their last 11 EURO matches, with five clean sheets, but their first-half performance against England (8 touches for Miedema) was lackluster. No major injuries reported, but Jill Roord’s fitness is key after heavy tackling. Recent form: LWDWW.

France Women Review
France, under Hervé Renard, began with a 2-1 victory over defending champions England on July 5, 2025, with goals from Marie-Antoinette Katoto and Sandy Baltimore, despite a late Keira Walsh strike. Their 4-2-3-1 formation features Katoto (1 goal), Delphine Cascarino, and Kadidiatou Diani, with Grace Geyoro anchoring midfield. France average 1.5 goals scored and 1.0 conceded per match in 2025, with a strong defensive record (9/12 clean sheets in recent competitive games). Their 2-1 win over Wales on July 9, 2025, secured six points, but defensive lapses allowed a late Welsh goal. No injuries reported, but Elisa De Almeida’s disciplinary record (1 yellow) is a concern. Recent form: WWLWW.

Head to Head
The Netherlands and France have met three times in competitive fixtures since 2017, with France winning all three:
2022 (EURO Quarter-final, Rotherham): France 1-0 Netherlands (Ève Périsset penalty, extra time).
2017 (Friendly, Utrecht): France 2-1 Netherlands.
2017 (Friendly, Valenciennes): France 4-0 Netherlands. Average goals per match: 2.67, with France scoring 7 and Netherlands 1. Both teams scored in only one of these games, and none exceeded 2.5 goals. The Netherlands’ sole goal came from Lieke Martens in 2017. France’s defensive solidity (3 clean sheets in 3 H2H) gives them an edge.

Prediction: Netherlands Women 0-1 France Women.
France’s defensive discipline (1 goal conceded in 2) and H2H dominance (3-0 vs Netherlands) make them favorites. Katoto and Diani’s pace should exploit the Netherlands’ high line, exposed by England’s 2.9 xG. The Dutch rely on Miedema and Beerensteyn to break France’s backline, but their eight first-half touches vs England suggest struggles against elite defenses. Bookmakers favor France (odds ~1.60, 60% win probability), with under 2.5 goals at 1.95 (60% of France’s EURO games) and both teams to score at 2.00 (Netherlands’ 3/5 games). Katoto to score, Peyraud-Magnin to keep a clean sheet.
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