AFC Alters Format for 2026 World Cup Qualifiers: Does It Hurt Indonesia’s Chances?

The AFC has announced a new format for the fourth round of the 2026 World Cup qualifiers for the Asian zone, and Indonesia’s national team could be at a disadvantage. Initially scheduled to take place in neutral venues, the fourth round in October 2025 will now be held in two host countries. These countries will be the top two teams, based on points from the third round of the qualifiers, from the groups where teams finish in third and fourth place.
Currently, the United Arab Emirates (UAE) and Iraq lead the third and fourth places in their respective groups, A and B, and are poised to host the fourth round of the qualifiers. UAE has accumulated 13 points, and Iraq is close behind with 12 points. A total of six teams will compete in this round, drawn from the third and fourth-place teams across Groups A, B, and C, and divided into two groups of three. The top two teams from each group will secure spots in the 2026 World Cup, while the runners-up will compete in a playoff.
This new format puts Indonesia at a disadvantage. With only 9 points, Indonesia is currently far behind the UAE and Iraq, making it unlikely for them to be one of the host countries. Furthermore, all teams that will participate in the fourth round are from Western Asia, creating a challenging environment for Indonesia. Despite this, Indonesia has had success in matches in Western Asia, having achieved positive results in past encounters with teams from the region. This includes victories and undefeated streaks in past World Cup qualifying rounds, suggesting that while the new format may pose challenges, Indonesia has historically managed to perform well in these conditions.