July 7th EAFF East Asian Cup - Hong Kong VS Japan Prediction
EAFF East Asian Cup - Japan VS Hong Kong
Match Time:08-07-2025 18:20 Tuesday (GMT+8)
Football Livescore | Match Prediction & Tips
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Hong Kong Review
Hong Kong, ranked 157th by FIFA, qualified for the 2025 EAFF E-1 Football Championship final round with a dominant preliminary campaign, winning six straight matches, including a 5-0 rout of Guam on December 17, 2024, to secure their spot. Coached by Ashley Westwood, their attacking 4-3-3, led by Philip Chan Siu-kwan (2 goals in qualifiers) and Everton Camargo (2 goals), averages 2.5 goals per match across their last six games. Their defensive solidity (0.6 goals conceded per match) and high pressing have been key, though their 0-2 loss to Palestine in a January 2025 friendly exposed vulnerabilities against stronger sides. Playing at Yongin Mireu Stadium, South Korea, they face a step-up in competition. Recent form: WWWWWW.
Japan Review
Japan, the defending EAFF E-1 champions and ranked 15th globally, field a largely domestic-based squad under Hajime Moriyasu, with 23 of 26 players from the J League. Key players include Koki Ogawa (3 goals in 2022 EAFF) and Takumi Minamino. Their recent form is strong (W4-D1-L0), averaging 2.4 goals per match, with a 3-1 friendly win over Spain on June 28, 2025, showcasing their attacking depth. Japan’s 4-2-3-1 emphasizes pace and technicality, though their rotated squad lacks stars like Takefusa Kubo. Defensively, they’ve conceded in three of their last five (0.8 goals per match). Playing away, Japan remain favorites due to their superior quality and experience. Recent form: WWWDW.
Head to Head
Hong Kong and Japan have met five times since 2010 in EAFF competitions, with Japan winning all:
July 19, 2022 (EAFF, Japan): Japan 6-0 Hong Kong. Shuto Machino’s hat-trick led a rout.
December 14, 2019 (EAFF, South Korea): Japan 5-0 Hong Kong. Japan dominated with 65% possession.
December 11, 2017 (EAFF, Japan): Japan 2-1 Hong Kong. A closer contest, but Japan prevailed. Average goals per match: 4.6, with Japan scoring 18 goals to Hong Kong’s 1 across these games. No match saw both teams score, reflecting Japan’s defensive dominance. Japan’s superior squad depth has consistently overwhelmed Hong Kong’s limited resources.
Prediction: Hong Kong 0-3 Japan
The EAFF E-1 Group Stage match on July 8, 2025, at Yongin Mireu Stadium heavily favors Japan. Hong Kong’s six-game win streak and attacking output (Chan, Camargo) give them confidence, but their lack of experience against top-tier sides like Japan (FIFA 15th) is a hurdle. Japan’s rotated squad, led by Ogawa and Minamino, should exploit Hong Kong’s defensive frailties, as seen in past routs (6-0, 5-0). Bookmakers give Japan a 90% win probability (odds ~1.10). Hong Kong may create chances via counterattacks, but Japan’s technical superiority and 60% possession average should secure a comfortable win. Expect Ogawa or Minamino to score, with Japan controlling the game.
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