June 12th Brazil Serie A - Sao Paulo VS Vasco da Gama Prediction
Brazil Serie A - Sao Paulo VS Vasco da Gama
Match Time:13-06-2025 08:30 Friday (GMT+8)
Football Livescore | Match Prediction & Tips
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The Brazil Serie A match between São Paulo and Vasco da Gama, scheduled for June 13, 2025, at MorumBIS in São Paulo, is a Matchday 12 fixture. Below is an analysis of the teams, their head-to-head history, and a shortened prediction, incorporating relevant web and X sources.
Team Analysis
São Paulo (Current Rank: 12th, 12 points)
Coached by Luis Zubeldía, São Paulo have struggled in the 2025 Serie A season, with 2 wins, 6 draws, and 3 losses in 11 matches. Their recent 0-2 loss to Mirassol and four consecutive draws to start the campaign highlight inconsistency. They also compete in Copa Libertadores (1st, 14 points).
Strengths:
Home Form: Unbeaten in their last nine home games against Vasco across all competitions, with 8 wins, including a 4-2 victory in 2023.
Key Players: Luciano (2 goals), Lucas Moura, and Jonathan Calleri drive the attack, with Rafael in goal providing stability (3 clean sheets).
Attacking Potential: Average 1.23 goals per match, with 50% of home games over 2.5 goals.
Weaknesses:
Injuries and Absences: Up to eight players could miss this match, including Marcos Antônio, Luiz Gustavo, Calleri, Oscar, Ruan, Igor Vinícius, Lucas, and Ferreira, severely impacting depth.
Poor Form: Only one win in their last five games across all competitions, with 10 points dropped after scoring first.
Vasco da Gama (Current Rank: 15th, 10 points)
Managed by Álvaro Pacheco, Vasco have 3 wins, 1 draw, and 7 losses, with a recent 2-1 win over Cuiabá ending a four-game winless away streak. They’re two points above the relegation zone, also competing in Copa Sudamericana (2nd, 8 points).
Strengths:
Key Players: Dimitri Payet (1 goal), Pablo Vegetti, and Philippe Coutinho provide attacking quality, with Leo Jardim solid in goal.
Recent Win: Their 2-1 away victory over Cuiabá boosts morale, with 1.29 goals per match.
Head-to-Head Edge: Vasco won 4-1 at home against São Paulo in June 2024, their first league win over them since 2017.
Weaknesses:
Away Struggles: No wins in their last four away games before Cuiabá, with 15 goals conceded in 11 matches (joint-fourth worst in Serie A).
Injuries and Suspensions: Jair, Paulinho, Guilherme Estrella, and David are out, with Souza suspended, limiting options.
Head-to-Head History
São Paulo and Vasco da Gama have met 41 times since 2002 in Serie A and other competitions:
Total Matches: 41
São Paulo Wins: 22 (Total Goals: 62, PPG: 1.5)
Vasco da Gama Wins: 9 (Total Goals: 36, PPG: 0.9)
Draws: 10
Recent Encounters:
October 17, 2024 (Serie A): Vasco won 3-0 at home (Luciano, Moura, Welington scored for Vasco).
June 23, 2024 (Serie A): Vasco won 4-1 at home.
May 20, 2023 (Serie A): São Paulo won 4-2 at home.
Goal Trends: 60% BTTS, 80% over 2.5 goals in the last five meetings. Average goals per match: 2.95.
At MorumBIS: São Paulo are unbeaten in 9 home games vs. Vasco (8 wins, 1 draw), with no Vasco win since 2012.
Prediction: São Paulo 2-1 Vasco da Gama
São Paulo’s unbeaten home record against Vasco (8-1-0) and 12-point home haul favor them, despite up to eight absences. Vasco’s recent 2-1 away win and 4-1 victory over São Paulo in 2024 show threat, but their injury-hit squad and poor away form (0.3 goals per game) tilt the scales. With 80% over 2.5 goals in recent head-to-heads, expect goals, but São Paulo’s home strength should secure a narrow win at MorumBIS.
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